WEFEX - Weather & Seasonal Forecast Extremes
Turning weather extremes into actionable intelligence
WEFEX is an interactive tool designed to help businesses estimate the risk of extreme weather across Europe. By combining the AIFS ensemble AI weather forecast with the ECMWF seasonal forecast, WEFEX delivers daily insights into potential extremes of temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and wind gusts.
All forecasts are benchmarked against ERA5 historical percentiles, making it possible to quantify risks clearly and consistently. For example, WEFEX can show that there is a 27% probability that tomorrow’s temperature in your region will exceed the 95th percentile - which historically corresponds to 34°C.
Key Features
- Daily temporal resolution for both short-range weather and long-range seasonal forecasts.
- Percentile-based thresholds to highlight the likelihood of significant extremes.
- Flexible spatial aggregation levels, from gridded data to country (ADM0) and regional (ADM1) averages.
- Intuitive visualisations that let you track probabilities, compare to ERA5 benchmarks, and explore distribution charts.
Designed for Decision-Makers
Whether you work in energy, agriculture, risk management, or policy planning, WEFEX supports evidence-based decisions by translating complex climate data into clear, actionable risk estimates.