WEFEX tool Your Gateway to Extreme Weather Intelligence
The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events pose a fundamental challenge for organizations across Europe. The question is no longer whether extreme weather will occur, but when, where, and with what probability. For decision-makers in energy, agriculture, insurance, and infrastructure, this uncertainty translates directly into operational risk, financial exposure, and strategic planning complexity.
WEFEX(Weather & Seasonal Forecast Extremes) addresses this challenge by transforming complex meteorological data into clear, quantifiable risk intelligence. Developed by Inside Climate Service (ICS) and World Energy & Meteorology Council (WEMC), WEFEX is an interactive tool designed to help organizations estimate the probability of extreme weather events across Europe, delivering the precision needed to move from reactive crisis management to proactive risk planning.
The wefex approach: dual-layer forecasting with historical context
WEFEX combines two complementary forecasting systems to provide both immediate and strategic foresight:
- Short-range precision: Daily weather forecasts from both AI-driven (AIFS) and physically-based (IFS) ensemble models provide high-resolution insights into extreme events in the near term, essential for operational decisions like grid management, harvest timing, or emergency preparedness.
- Long-range strategic planning: Seasonal forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) extend the planning horizon to six months ahead, also at daily resolution, enabling organizations to anticipate resource needs, adjust investment strategies, and prepare for extended periods of climate stress.
What distinguishes Wefex
What sets WEFEX apart is its focus on probabilistic extreme risk combined with historical context. Rather than predicting temperature, rainfall, or wind speed, WEFEX estimates the probability that conditions will exceed critical extreme thresholds across multiple time horizons. This allows users to anticipate and prepare for events with the greatest operational impact:
- Heatwaves and cold spells
- Heavy rainfall and flood risk
- Strong wind events
These are not typical day-to-day variations in weather, but rather the high-impact conditions most likely to disrupt infrastructure, operations, and safety. A key differentiator is WEFEX’s rigorous benchmarking approach. Every forecast is evaluated against the widely used ERA5 reanalysis historical percentiles. This means WEFEX does not just provide a risk of exceedance; it shows it in the context of the value is for that location and time of year. For example, instead of saying “Tomorrow’s temperature will be 34°C,” WEFEX can indicate that there is a 27% probability of exceeding the 95th percentile, a level historically associated with extreme heat in that region. This percentile-based framing transforms raw forecasts into contextualized risk metrics, making it far easier for decision-makers to understand severity and act accordingly.
Key features for evidence-based decisions
WEFEX is built on four core capabilities designed to translate complexity into clarity:
Probability thresholds
rather than binary yes/no predictions, WEFEX provides probability distributions for extreme events. A risk manager can assess whether a 20% chance of extreme wind justifies operational adjustments or site reinforcements, integrating this information into their broader risk framework.
Variable tracking
the platform monitors temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and wind gusts, the primary drivers of weather-related operational disruption and financial loss.
Flexible spatial aggregation
users can view highly localized gridded data or aggregate forecasts at provinces (adm1) and country (adm0) levels, matching the spatial scale to their specific operational or strategic needs.
Intuitive visualizations
WEFEX employs interactive dashboards, including an extreme events map for high-risk area identification, historical comparison tools, and ensemble viewers that allow users to explore probabilistic forecasts at selected locations. Visual distribution charts make it possible to quickly assess the likelihood of worst-case scenarios.
Designed for sectors where weather extremes equal financial risk
WEFEX serves organisations where extreme weather events translate directly into operational disruption or financial exposure:
- Energy: Grid operators and renewable energy developers can use WEFEX to predict wind gusts that could damage turbines, anticipate heatwaves that will spike electricity demand, or plan maintenance windows around forecasted weather extremes.
- Agriculture and water management: Agricultural producers and water utilities can rely on WEFEX to anticipate frost events, extreme rainfall that could compromise harvests, or drought conditions requiring resource reallocation.
- Insurance and finance: Insurers and financial institutions can use WEFEX to quantify the likelihood of claims-triggering events before they occur, supporting more accurate pricing, reserve planning, and portfolio risk assessment.
- Infrastructure and government: Infrastructure managers and civil protection agencies can integrate WEFEX insights into maintenance scheduling, emergency preparedness protocols, and early warning systems for extreme weather events.
The science behind the intelligence
WEFEX is powered by some of the most advanced meteorological and climate modeling systems available:
AIFS (Artificial Intelligence/Integrated Forecasting System)
An ensemble AI weather forecast model produced by ECMWF, leveraging machine learning to emulate the physics of the traditional IFS while delivering high-resolution forecasts with reduced computational costs.
IFS (Integrated Forecasting System)
The flagship global numerical weather prediction model developed by ECMWF. It integrates atmospheric, land surface, ocean, and wave models to produce ensemble forecasts up to 15 days ahead, widely used by national meteorological services worldwide.
ECMWF Seasonal Forecasts
This system provides the long-range seasonal outlook, recognized globally for its forecast skill and reliability.
ERA5 Reanalysis Dataset
The foundational historical benchmark, ERA5 offers a consistent, high-resolution climate record from 1940 to the present, enabling robust percentile calculations and historical context for all forecasts. WEFEX uses a shorter record (1982-2016) in line with the ECMWF retrospective forecasts, enabling alignment between reanalysis and forecast evaluation.
By combining these data sources, WEFEX delivers a coherent, scientifically rigorous framework for extreme weather risk assessment.
Partnering for a resilient future
WEFEX is part of ICS's coherent, end-to-end approach to climate intelligence: taking the best available science, refining it through proprietary tools, and applying it directly to solve pressing operational challenges. Whether your organiszation requires long-term climate projections for strategic planning or near-term extreme weather risk quantification for operational decisions, ICS provides the integrated solution framework to turn climate complexity into strategic advantage. Curious how WEFEX can strengthen your climate risk strategy? Request a demo and discover how probabilistic forecast intelligence can transform your approach to resilience planning.